As some of you know, I help maintain the unofficial Lucid Air Grand Touring tracker thread in the Lucid Owners Forum and over the past few days or so, there are a lot of people posting in the forum that they have their delivery scheduled for next week or have already just received their Lucid Air this week. I estimate this tracker has 5-10% of all the true reservations that Lucid Motors has, which they stated was 37,000 on last night’s earnings call.

I have seen a dozen or so reservation holders either post photos of their cars in the forum, announce they received the car, or announce they have a scheduled delivery for the end of this week or early next week. It does seem like Lucid Motors is now pushing out a lot of the vehicles that may have been on a temporary hold, for whatever “quality” reasons Lucid’s CEO mentioned on the call.

So hopefully we will see a lot of deliveries reported in the Q3 earnings report but you never know.

Early Misses On Production & Delivery

Like I said last night, my early estimates put Lucid delivering between 900 and 1,200 cars in Q2 but it looks like I was wrong. I was even wrong in my revised estimates, twice. Lucid only delivered 679 cars in Q2, 2022.

They also only produced 705 cars in all of Q2, based on my math (which can be wrong but Lucid said yesterday they had 1,405 cars produced in the first half of 2022, and in Q1 they said produced 700 cars. So 1,405 minus 700 equals 705 cars for Q2. So Lucid produced as many cars in Q1 that they did in Q2.

But it seems production is up in Q3 and it seems like Lucid is pumping out deliveries. The question is, will quality be there with the increase in production? There have been early quality issues, even recently but in May, we reported about additional pre-delivery inspections, with a third fit and finish inspection as well. There were also reports of executive changes within the company related to these hardware quality issues. In July Lucid sent out some explanations about this as well.

How Many Cars Will Lucid Deliver In 2022?

Lucid delivered 125 cars to customers in Q4 2021, 360 in Q1 2022, and now 679 in Q2 2022. Lucid reset expectations for deliveries for all of 2022 to hit 6,000 to 7,000 produce cars, not necessarily deliver them all.

We have no numbers on how many cars Lucid delivered or produced in July or August, it was not mentioned on the earnings call at all. Peter did mention some “planned and unplanned pauses in the quarter that resulted in approximately 2.5 weeks where we have no daily production at the factory.” He added, “some unplanned production pauses, primarily in order to improve our logistics processes.” But he said all these efforts should result in better quality and better production output in the near future (or now).

My estimate for Q3 deliveries would probably be somewhere around 800 cars delivered and then Q4 deliveries to be 1,500 deliveries. So we’d see about 3,500 cars delivered in all of 2022 or so?

Production estimates? I would guess twice that as many. Maybe? Maybe Lucid can hit 6,000 cars produced but I would guess it would be closer to 4,500 to 5,000. I am really just guessing.

I like how Tesla 2.0 in this thread laid it out:

This is my own assumption extrapolation based on past manufacturing performance…

Currently Ramping Velocity
125 Q4 2021
360 Q1 2022 (2.88x)
679 Q2 2022 (1.88x)
——————-
1164 TOTAL Delivery

Pessimistic Projection Ramping Velocity
125 Q4 2021
360 Q1 2022 (2.88x)
679 Q2 2022 (1.88x)
828 Q3 2022 (1.22x)
1556 Q4 2022 (1.88x introduce 2nd shift)
——————-
3548 TOTAL Delivery

Realistic Projection Ramping Velocity
125 Q4 2021
360 Q1 2022 (2.88x)
679 Q2 2022 (1.88x)
1276 Q3 2022 (1.88x introduce 2nd shift early)
2973 Q4 2022 (2.33x 2nd shift fully operational)
——————-
5413 TOTAL Delivery

Optimistic Projection Ramping Velocity
125 Q4 2021
360 Q1 2022 (2.88x)
679 Q2 2022 (1.88x)
1276 Q3 2022 (1.88x introduce 2nd shift early)
3674 Q4 2033 (2.88x supply chain easing)
——————-
6114 TOTAL Delivery

I am a super conservative person when it comes to estimates but my conservative estimates for Q2 were too optimistic. Q3 earnings should be interesting.

I am no stock analyst and I do not make a living from the stock market, but I do have fun tracking these deliveries. So take my estimates with a grain of salt.

Again, the good news, is I see a lot of customers reporting their cars are being delivered this and next week. So that is very optimistic.